Ten_x_Alpha #12
Gm,
Today, we will be discussing about the markets and whether the recent dip is a good buying opportunity or there is more downside to come. As well as an in-depth curated list of high conviction airdrops opportunities to farm in current market conditions.
In Edition #10 of Ten_x_alpha, I shared the message below saying that the 5 to 8 months following the halving is historically a consolidation regime with low volatility:
I also shared this other chart below that showed that the most bullish months of the year tend to be in Q1 and Q4 and price action is generally relatively bearish in Q2, Q3.
Therefore, not very surprising to see some pullback. Specially after very bullish PA in Q1.
Looking at the weekly TOTAL chart:
Here are my observations:
This week’s PA barely looks like a dip. In fact, the weekly candle isn’t even red (yet).
After every strong rally, there is a period of consolidation. I’ve outlined the 3 we’ve had since the bear market lows in Nov. 22. We can see that happened in Q2/Q3 2023 as well. And it could happen this year as well. That would also be aligned with the thesis that the ~6 months following the halving, price consolidates.
If the consolidation range I’ve outlined turns out to be somehow correct, it means there is more possible downside until October. This remains a strong possibility.
Now let me clarify some levels based on Bitcoin.
Since the bear market, BTC has not retraced more than the 0.382 fib level. I don’t see any reason why this wouldn’t happen again. The orange line represents that scenario. My worst case scenario currently is the red line which would be a retrace to the 0.618 fib level.
Let me add that I remain extremely bullish for both Q4 2024 and 2025 and I expect BTC to be in ATH territory in Q4.
The PA is still extremely bullish. The bullish structure is intact. Higher highs, higher lows, shallow pullbacks.
In short, I see that as nothing more than a healthy consolidation period.
Ok, but what actions should you take now? should you buy now the dip? or wait for more downside? and what should you buy?
Here is what I think:
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