Ten_x_Alpha #8
Welcome to the another edition of CryptoKoryo’s Premium newsletter “Ten_x_Alpha”.
We cover here in the most exhaustive yet the most dense format everything you need to know to take action and make profits.
The focus of this week’s edition will be:
Market analysis
The only two narratives you should care about in April
What I’m looking on the AI sector
One new project worth looking at
Market Analysis
The halving is in less than 10 days.
If we zoom out and look at the past cycles, it seems we are still in the accumulation phase, and the hype period is only going to start after the halving.
The chart above shows that the top of the bull market is between 300 to 450 days after the halving. That would be somewhere in 2025.
Is that really that simple?
Yes and no.
Yes, because this has played out really well in the past cycles. No reason to believe it will change too much. Simple often works in crypto.
No, because we already made new ATH before halving and things might happen faster this time and very differently.
But, whenever the top happens, whether in Q4 24 or Q4 25, I strongly believe we are not yet there. Practically speaking, this means you should hold strongly to your long-term portfolio and buy any dip.
So are we currently having a dip in the market worth buying?
I’ve often said that in a bull market environment, rather than a strong retrace in price, you want to see a reset on momentum indicators and in funding rates.
Check the outlined purple circles near the end of January, daily bitcoin RSI had a reset to 40. A 56% drop from the local RSI top. That happened after multiple RSI divergences and just some consolidation in price.
We are again seeing multiple RSI divergences and a good 46% drop on RSI.
So are we in the same situation as Jan. 2024?
Here is what I think: